Legalized medical marijuana groups, once well ahead in polls, now hope to hold on as scales tip toward nonpassage (Photo: Getty Images/Zoonar RF )
Amendment 2 is a toss-up instead of a shoo-in.
The poll numbers for the measure to legalize medical marijuana have been see-sawing over the past few months, but the percentage in favor has been dropping.
The latest poll Thursday showed 59 percent in favor. A poll on Wednesday showed 50 percent in favor.
That’s not good enough. Unlike typical races, the amendment needs a 60 percent super-majority to pass.
At least 17 polls taken by various organizations and institutions since November 2013 show a wide range, from a high of 88 percent in favor to a low of 48 percent. Why the drastic slide?
Political experts say it’s the October infusion of millions by the Vote No on 2 campaign to fund hard-hitting TV ads that raise fear and doubt about amendment language. Also, people have focused much more closely on the issue as summer waned and fall’s high season of politicking began.
Some pollsters are convinced the amendment will fail Tuesday. They say it will get more than 50 percent of the vote, but fall short of 60. Others are on the verge of saying nay.
But major players in the for and against campaigns say the result is up for grabs.
“It’s done. It can’t pass. How does it pass?” said Doug Kaplan, political consultant and president of Gravis Marketing, which released the poll showing 50 percent in favor on Wednesday. Earlier Gravis polls in April and January showed 60 percent and 57 percent approval, respectively.
It’s like a football game when one team is behind, but you know they have the momentum and they’re going to pull it out, Kaplan said. The pro Amendment 2 camp no longer has that momentum.
Pot opinions narrowing
Since late last year, polls have shown that those in favor of Amendment 2 outnumber opponents, but as the election nears the gap is narrowing.
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What are the odds
Susan MacManus, professor of public administration and political science at the University of South Florida, is less adamant. “The odds of it failing are greater than the odds of it passing,” she said.
Meanwhile, attorney John Morgan of Orlando, the main face, voice and funder behind the amendment, referred to the race as a tie in an email blast to supporters last week.
In what may be the only time the two sides agree, Sarah Bascom, spokeswoman for Vote No on 2, also called it neck-and-neck. “Yes, the race right now is a tossup,” she said. “It’s very close.”
The polls also show a range of 2 percent to 18 percent undecided. In the past two months, the highest number of undecided was 13 percent, in a Survey USA poll taken Sept. 12-15. The lowest number of undecided was 3 percent in a poll taken by the Anzalone Liszt Grover Research during the same period, from Sept. 12-18.
Some say the polls are more confusing than enlightening in depicting the true state of the race. Yet, they pay attention.
Ben Pollara, manager of United for Care, the campaign for Amendment 2, said if he hadn’t stopped paying attention to the polls a month ago, he’d pull out his hair. However, he notes polling done for the campaign consistently shows 61 percent in favor.
He is cautiously optimistic. “It’s very much ours to lose at this point,” Pollara said.
Scenes from The News-Press’ Medical Marijuana Town Hall on Tuesday at The News-Press in downtown Fort Myers. Kinfay Moroti/news-press.com
Jessica Spencer, state coordinator for Vote No on 2, also said she doesn’t pay attention to the polls. She pays attention to what voters tell her as she travels the state. Education is the key to why the “no” side has gained so much, she said.
“Floridians are smart. Once they receive the information and have an opportunity to read the amendment,” they see the loopholes, she said. “They see the need to vote no.”
In polling, “the nature of the question will determine oftentimes what kind of response you get, positive or negative,” said Peter Bergerson, FGCU political science professor. Polls may also use different methodologies and different sampling sizes.
The high of 88 percent favorability for Amendment 2 came from two Quinnipiac University polls in late April and late July. The sample size was 1,413 in April. The sample in July was 1,251.
The low of 48 percent in favor is from a mid-October poll by the University of Florida Graham Center. The sample size was 781.
Bergerson, who has analyzed and studied political campaigns for more than 40 years, doesn’t buy the 88 percent high. “The 88 percent mark was unrealistic from the very beginning, and even the 60 percent is a threshold that for an issue that is controversial like this, is a very high threshold,” he said. “I didn’t believe it would be reached. Nothing has changed my mind.”
The Quinnipiac poll asked the question: “Do you support or oppose allowing adults in Florida to legally use marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it?” The poll did not ask specifically about Amendment 2.
That was on purpose, to make the questions consistent when polling about medical marijuana in other states, said Peter Brown, assistant director for the university poll.
If you ask the question whether it should be constitutionally OK for individuals who have incurable diseases to use medical marijuana approved by a physician, you’re going to get a yes, Bergerson said. “Why? Well, it’s compassionate and personalized. Who wants to see people suffer?” If you ask a question like, ‘Would you approve an amendment that could allow medical marijuana dispensaries next to Fort Myers High School?’ you’re going to get a no, he said.
MacManus said there’s also been a lot more attention on TV and in print about the problems states that have legalized marijuana for general use are having. They include the fallout of not being able to control kids from getting ahold of it, she said. “That makes people a little bit nervous about voting for it.” (Amendment 2)
Pulling out stops
The amendment is being viewed as in essence, a de facto legalization of marijuana, not just medical marijuana, Bergerson said. “That lens has been presented by the anti-legalization group. The emotion generated, in particular fear, can go a long way in politics, he said. The negatives are backed up by the general medical community and law enforcement, “and they lend credibility to it,” Bergerson said.
United for Care sent a “cease and desist” letter last week to all TV stations broadcasting Vote No on 2’s latest ad, titled “It’s Nuts.” The ad recaps all of what Pollara called “the ‘greatest hits’ of all the falsehoods medical marijuana opponents have perpetuated throughout the campaign.” The letter lists the complaints, starting with the opponents’ claim that Amendment 2 in effect means the general legalization of marijuana.
“By law, television broadcasters have a public obligation to refuse to run demonstrably false advertisements,” Pollara said in a statement. “We strongly believe that No on 2’s most recent ad violates this standard.”
Meanwhile, Morgan has been pulling out all the stops to get the amendment over the top, including an appearance on the Today Show on Thursday with his brother, Tim, who is a quadriplegic. Morgan has said his reason for contributing $4 million to get the amendment on the ballot is the fact Tim and their late father, who had esophageal cancer and emphysema, benefited from medical marijuana.
Morgan should get kudos for his efforts, Kaplan said. Getting more than 50 percent yes on Amendment 2 would be an accomplishment, he said. “Getting 60 percent of anything is very hard.”
What will voters do? Down to the wire for medical marijuana
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