Marijuana legalization measure in close race in Oregon, new poll shows

Oregon voters are closely divided about passing a measure that would legalize recreational marijuana in the state, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian and KGW.

The Oct. 26-27 survey of 403 likely voters found that 44 percent backed the legalization measure while 46 percent were opposed.  Another 7 percent were unsure and and 2 percent would not say.  The difference between the yes and no sides is well within the poll’s margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Washington and Colorado in 2012 became the first states to legalize marijuana.  Voters in Alaska and Washington, D.C. are also considering legalization measures at next Tuesday’s election.

The poll was conducted by Elway Research, an independent polling firm in Seattle.

The new poll showed a lower level of support for the measure than an Oct. 8-11 survey taken for Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12 that showed 52 percent supported Measure 91 and 41 percent opposed.

One big difference between the two polls is their projections of the age makeup of those voting.

The Oregonian/KGW survey taken by pollster Stuart Elway has a sample showing that 71 percent of the electorate will be aged 51 or older.  The OPB/Fox survey, conducted by DHM Research of Portland, uses slightly different age ranges, but 58 percent of its sample includes voters 45 or older.

That could make a big difference because younger voters are much more likely to support legalization of marijuana, according to The Oregonian/KGW survey.

All told, 56 percent of voters aged 18-34 said they would back Measure 91, as did 55 percent of those aged 35-50.  But voters aged 51-64 opposed it 42 percent to 47 percent and seniors were strongly against it, 39 percent to 54 percent.

“Support goes down as age goes up,” said Elway, noting that he saw the same dynamic in polling he did for the marijuana legalization measure that passed in Washington in 2012. 

He said that his sample did include a large percentage of older voters, who tend to be a more prominent part of the voter mix in non-presidential elections.  But he also said it’s possible that younger voters could be a larger percentage of those who wind up voting in the election. The Measure 91 campaign has put major resources into registering and turning out younger voters.

The survey also shows that 48 percent of Portland area voters support the measure compared to 42 percent opposed.  In the rest of the state, 49 percent are opposed and 41 percent are in favor.  Democrats are heavily in favor of the measure, Republicans even more heavily opposed and other voters are just about evenly divided.

The measure trails slightly among those who have already voted but leads slightly among those who say they are certain to vote.  Men are evenly divided while women are slightly more opposed.

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– Jeff Mapes

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Marijuana legalization measure in close race in Oregon, new poll shows